Mobility Watch

It’s incredible.  All Steve Jobs has to do is get up on stage, dangle a phone in his hand with Apple’s name on it, and by the end of the day stock in the parent company of BlackBerry drops almost 8 percent.

The iPhone may be one very cool product, but it can’t and certainly won’t replace BlackBerry.  Analysts like Michael Gartenberg at Jupiter Research are grousing about iPhone’s shortcomings, which include no 3G (third generation high speed data) capability, no third-party software capability (no Slingplayer!), and no support for Microsoft Office attachments.  And why didn’t Apple include wireless download capability from iTunes?

Then there’s Larry Dignan of ZDNet, who says his own Motorola Q handset feels like an Edsel next to iPhone.  Dignan predicts doom not only for Motorola, but for LG and Samsung to boot.  And as for Sprint, Dignan says Cingular’s marriage to Apple is the next to last nail in Sprint’s coffin.  (Yes, I’ve read the reports about Sprint’s layoffs and gloomy outlook for 2007.  iPhone is not Sprint’s biggest problem.  Not even close.)

Jeez, remember how expensive the iPhone is, and all the things it doesn’t do.  Dignan seems to think phones like BlackBerry’s Pearl will be relegated to the trash heap by Apple’s iPhone.  I think the opposite:  People who wander into a Cingular store to see the iPhone might just fall in love with the Pearl and everything it can do.  Especially when they realize they can buy three Pearls for the price of one iPhone.

Don’t get me wrong.  iPhone is a game-changing product for wireless manufacturers and service providers.  It’s liable to be the new phone of choice for the likes of Paris Hilton.  But it offers no serious advantages for business people, who will remain attached to their BlackBerrys or Palm Treos.  And for non-business users, any phone over $200 is a tough sell.  Never mind $500 or $600.

Eventually I believe Apple will extend its product line (just as it extended its line of iPods) to include lower-cost handsets, that appeal to “the rest of us”.  But by then, the other manufacturers will have developed handsets to compete with the iPhone’s heightened coolness factor.  The game may be changed by Apple’s iPhone, but the game is by no means over.

Apple, iPhone, Cingular Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, Palm Treo, Motorola Q, LG, Samsung, BlackBerry Pearl